How Far Do Grant Rates Vary Among the Busiest Immigration Courts? — October 2026
Source snapshot 2026-10-01 · Question-led aggregate analysis by AsylumTracker
Among high-volume courts, how wide is the published grant-rate range?
Across 50 courts with at least 50,000 published grant-or-denial outcomes, the range is 43.1 percentage points: 1.6% at Houston South, TX and 44.7% at New York City, NY.
Three Findings
1. The large-sample median is 9.7%. That is the midpoint of court rates, not a rate weighted by each court's case volume.
2. The endpoints are not forecasts. The 43.1-point range remains descriptive because court case mix, judge mix, representation, posture, and time periods differ.
3. Volume is concentrated. The ten courts with the largest published denominators account for 38.2% of all court-level decided outcomes in this snapshot.
High- and Low-Rate Courts Meeting the 50,000-Decision Threshold
| Profile | Decided | Grant rate |
|---|---|---|
| Houston South, TX | 58,230 | 1.6% |
| Stewart, GA | 84,557 | 1.6% |
| Houston Greenspoint, TX | 58,210 | 2.5% |
| Harlingen, TX | 173,356 | 3.3% |
| Aurora, CO | 75,532 | 3.9% |
| Eloy, AZ | 132,655 | 4.1% |
| Baltimore, MD | 101,306 | 27.0% |
| Boston, MA | 130,487 | 27.2% |
| Miami, FL | 352,162 | 28.0% |
| West Los Angeles, CA | 369,300 | 29.4% |
| San Francisco, CA | 228,907 | 43.0% |
| New York City, NY | 433,189 | 44.7% |
Reproduce This Analysis
Methodology and Limits
Grant rate is granted / (granted + denied). This analysis is descriptive and does not identify causes or predict an individual case. It does not control for representation, case facts, judge or court assignment, procedural posture, nationality mix except where explicitly stated, changes in law, or source-data errors.
The source is a cumulative snapshot published on 2026-10-01; it is not a count of decisions made only in October 2026. Read the grant-rate methodology and corrections policy.