How Much Do Outcomes for One Nationality Vary Across Immigration Courts? — September 2026
Source snapshot 2026-09-01 · Question-led aggregate analysis by AsylumTracker
For the same published nationality group, how much do court rates vary?
For India applicants, 19 court rows meet the 300-decision threshold. Their middle-half grant-rate spread is 39.1 points (5.9% to 45.0%).
Three Findings
1. The comparison holds nationality constant, not case circumstances. It still does not control for judge, representation, facts, posture, or year.
2. Each court row contains at least 300 decisions. Nationalities also need at least 10,000 published outcomes and five qualifying courts.
3. Publication scope matters. Nationality cells cover 2020–2026 and may omit thresholded cells.
Qualifying Court Rows for India Applicants
| Profile | Decided | Grant rate |
|---|---|---|
| Conroe, TX | 356 | 1.1% |
| Oakdale, LA | 573 | 1.6% |
| Indianapolis, IN | 530 | 2.3% |
| Jena, LA | 461 | 2.4% |
| Atlanta, GA | 624 | 5.8% |
| Memphis, TN | 599 | 6.0% |
| Cleveland, OH | 339 | 7.7% |
| Chicago, IL | 1,213 | 18.3% |
| Santa Ana, CA | 1,799 | 19.2% |
| Concord, CA | 3,817 | 25.8% |
| Newark, NJ | 513 | 26.3% |
| Seattle, WA | 624 | 26.6% |
| Van Nuys, CA | 571 | 31.3% |
| New York Broadway, NY | 1,478 | 41.5% |
| New York Varick 5th, NY | 1,904 | 48.4% |
| West Los Angeles, CA | 394 | 49.0% |
| New York City, NY | 6,266 | 50.7% |
| Sacramento, CA | 2,626 | 70.6% |
| San Francisco, CA | 6,497 | 74.6% |
Reproduce This Analysis
Methodology and Limits
Grant rate is granted / (granted + denied). This analysis is descriptive and does not identify causes or predict an individual case. It does not control for representation, case facts, judge or court assignment, procedural posture, nationality mix except where explicitly stated, changes in law, or source-data errors.
The source is a cumulative snapshot published on 2026-09-01; it is not a count of decisions made only in September 2026. Read the grant-rate methodology and corrections policy.